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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."